Electric car advocates, like the ones who gather here at Gas2, like to imagine that everyone will be buying an EV from now on and that cars with internal combustion engines will just disappear the way Conestoga wagons did a century ago. But basing predictions on hopes is fraught with pitfalls. The people at Energy Innovation have substituted actual research for dreams. Their analysis predicts that EV sales will account for 65% of the new car market by 2050. That could go as high as 75% depending on future battery prices and fuel costs.
The case for EV transportation is clear. Nearly one quarter of total energy consumed in the United States each year is attributable to gasoline and diesel powered vehicles. A vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine is only about 20% efficient. An electric car is about 60% efficient according to US Department of Energy — an increase of 300% compared to their fossil fueled cousins. It takes about $1 of electricity to power an EV for 43 miles. The fuel for a conventional car costs four times as much or more.