Bloomberg’s Tesla Q1 Estimates Were Way Off

We have to eat crow. That is the civilized way to say it. What we wrote was completely off. It was logical, believable, and wrong. After submitting it, I thought I should have included that famous line about complex problems having simple answers that are completely wrong — a point I did prove. Another way of saying it, it was FUBAR. Like many other people, we were fooled by a desire for Tesla progress and trust in the Bloomberg Tracker. There was a nagging feeling it was too optimistic, but no expectation that it was this far off.

It was supported by rumors from Gigafactory 1 (GF1) that battery pack production was at a steady 6,000+. Those are either in storage, or those reports were too optimistic, too.


What is happening with Model 3 production is worth a long explanation by ol’ Musky Elon Musk, himself, during the next TSLA conference call. These production numbers are too low to sustain and produce the Standard Range ($35K) version with an acceptable margin.

The only good thing in this report is the low number of Model S & X produced. That sounds strange, but it is better to adjust production to sales as early as possible than to produce a large number of cars in stock … and I have a feeling that (without the SEC meddling) we would have known more– but that’s for later.


By Maarten Vinkhuyzen, originally published at Cleantechnica.

Jo Borrás

I've been in the auto industry 1997, and write for a number of blogs in the IM network. You can also find me on Twitter, at my Volvo fansite, out on two wheels, or chasing my kids around Oak Park, IL.

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