UPDATE: Official numbers from Tesla, released Wednesday afternoon just after this article was published, put Model 3 deliveries at just 1550 units for 2017. Tesla stock was trading down 2% in after-hours trading as of 9PM EST on the news.
Tesla’s official Model 3 delivery figures aren’t out as I type this, but the people behind the Model3VINs Twitter account did release something that I found pretty interesting. It seems that Tesla requested to change some of the VINs from model year 2017 to model year 2018, leaving number 3,027 as the final “2017” Model 3 VIN.
VINs 3027-3840 were changed from MY2017 to MY2018 and check digit calculation has been corrected for VINs 3841-8362.
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) January 2, 2018
It should be noted that VINs are not a perfect indicator of total production numbers, but they remain a fairly accurate way of charting general numbers. The guys at Electrek know that, and rounded down, writing, “it looks like VINs up to ~3,000 were registered in 2017 and considering that Tesla skips VINs for some reasons, I think we can roughly estimate it could indicate that the automaker could have produced just over 2,000 Model 3 vehicles in 2017.”
While that “2000” might seem like a big number, it is just about 10% of what Elon Musk predicted he’d be able to deliver in December, alone. In case you’ve forgotten, I’ve embedded Elon’s hugely optimistic tweet from July 3rd, below.
Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 3, 2017
While Tesla does seem to be ramping up deliveries and some suppliers are indicating that 5000 cars per week seems possible, it’s worth noting that we’re still a long way away from the 700,000 units per year figure that the Tesla hype machine projected might be possible a few months ago.
What do you guys think? Am I being too hard on “the Doer, the Dreamer” by pointing out Tesla’s dismal production numbers for last year? Is Nissan just plain winning this thing? Is this kind of hiccup just normal on your way to becoming a world-beating ultra-mega conglomerate of cars, trucks, and- rocket ships, I guess? Fire up your Gravatar and let us know if you think 2000 cars counts as a win in the comments section at the bottom of the page.
Source | Images: Model3VINs, via Electrek.