Following on the heels of their ‘Electrification Roadmap‘ — a comprehensive document written in conjunction with global consulting group PRTM that details how to best shift our transportation sector to plug-in vehicles over the next couple of decades — the Electrification Coalition has just completed an analysis that finds huge benefits to the US economy would result from implementing most of the policies and strategies outlined in the document.
Chief among these benefits would be a strengthening and broadening of high paying manufacturing, travel, tourism, and professional jobs… to the tune of an additional 1.9 million of them by 2030. And now we can all add just one more reason why switching to a high-tech, innovation-based, green jobs focus in this country would do us a world of good.
The analysis concludes that not only would jobs increase signifcantly, the US budget deficit would decrease, household incomes would increase dramatically, Americans would spend far less money on transportation, our importation of oil would fall off sharply, our trade imbalance would improve, the US economy would be more able to absorb fluctuations in oil prices, and we’d all start to poop gold. Okay, that last one I made up. In more specific terms:
- Total employment would increase by 1.9 million jobs by 2030, including 560,000 more manufacturing jobs, 276,000 more jobs in travel and tourism, and 73,000 more jobs in professional services. Employment in the motor vehicle industry would be about 106,000 jobs higher than the base. Employment in the industries that supply key electric and electronic components to electric vehicles would increase by 112,000 jobs.
- Because of the higher levels of income and GDP resulting from the policies, the U.S. federal budget deficit would improve by a cumulative (2010 to 2030) $336 billion.
- By 2030, the typical US household’s annual income would rise by $2,763 (in today’s dollars).
- Cumulatively, during the 2010-2030 period, households would experience an increase of $4.6 trillion (in today’s dollars) in aggregate income — money that can be saved or spent on other goods and services.
- By 2030, the typical US household would spend less per year directly on energy for transportation. The combination of higher income and less spending on energy means that the typical household would be able to enjoy about $3,687 (in today’s dollars) more in consumption of goods and services, or personal savings.
- US crude oil and petroleum product imports would fall sharply, by 3.2 million barrels per day by 2030. Between 2010 and 2030, the US would import nearly 11.9 billion fewer barrels of foreign oil. This compares to estimated reserves of 4.3 billion barrels for Prudhoe Bay, and slightly less than 30 billion barrels for total U.S. proved reserves.
- By 2030, the U.S. trade balance would improve by about $127 billion dollars (2008 dollars).
- The U.S. economy will be stronger and more resilient. The Electrification Coalition policies—once fully implemented—would mitigate roughly one-third of the economic losses caused by a future oil price shock. By 2025, the EC policies would prevent the loss of 1.4 million jobs in the first year alone of a price shock-induced recession.
Of course, it’s good to keep in mind that all of these predictions are made by a group that is advocating the adoption of electric cars, so they will potentially be more rosy than reality. To those of us with our noses squarely in the middle of all this, many of their predictions are kind of “well, duh” insights (“reliance on fossil fuels will go down”), but it’s good to get some actual numbers to paper.
If you’re in the mood for some detailed reading, you should check out the full analysis for yourself, it’s actually got some very good reasoning behind it. I’ve made it available on the next page if you want.
Source: Electrification Coalition