How EVs unfold in the U.S. is going to be different than how EVs unfold in Europe and other countries. EVs adapt well to urban use – not long distance interstate travel, that is, until the infrastructure is in place. Americans are not waiting for Europe to show them the way. A large number of major cities in the United States are already implementing local EV charging networks.

EVs may become main-stream for urban use, in time. But in a country that is spread-out like the U.S., where Americans do a lot of commuting and long distance interstate driving, plug-in hybrids with range extender engines will be the mainstream vehicle, not EVs. We will still need fuel for these range extender engines. That will be renewable domestic ethanol, biodiesel, and synthetic fuels, etc.. Maybe even unrefined biomass slurries. One candidate for a range extender is the Green Revolution Engine, which can run on raw algae.

EVs are not going to be the same price as conventional vehicles, due to the high cost of the battery pack, even with gov. subsidies. That should change over time, with new technologies bringing the price of batteries down and the power up. Placing a higher demand on Lithium will drive the price up further, so we will need to use much less lithium, or move to something more plentiful.

EEStore’s ultra-capacitor is promising, but still not here yet. So we don’t know if that’s real just yet. Lighter materials, more efficient electric motors, exterior vehicle bodies covered in solar paint, etc., will all make EVs more affordable and more practical. EVs will come. But how fast. And will they dominate? Or will Plug-in hybrids with range extender engines dominate?

Hugo – You say “ the rate a user changes vehicle it’s related with the advantage and cost of the operation”. From your point of view and from an efficiency standpoint, that’s correct. But why did the SUV become the mainstream vehicle in the U.S.? “Cost of operation” is a major factor for a segment of car buyers, but it’s not the biggest driving force. Practicality is. If “cost of operation” was the driving force, then we would all be riding bicycles and scooters. But that’s not practical. In the U.S., it’s SUVs, pick-ups and 4 door sedans, with efficiency the secondary segment of the market. Especially in Europe, the higher price of fuel is a factor in the buying decision. Car sales do fluctuate with the price of fuel. When fuel spiked in 2008, you couldn’t give an SUV away in the U.S. Now they’re back in style, with the lower fuel prices.

Honda was the first to introduce a high mileage hybrid vehicle, the first Insight. That didn’t catch on. It was a pricey two seater – a great commuter car, but not practical for the family. And gas was too cheap at the time. The Prius came next, and that did gradually catch on, despite being $10K more expensive than the same size conventional car. But the “lower cost of operation” hybrids still represent less than 3% of the car market. Will EVs take a bigger market share? Yes – because they’re well-suited for urban use, they’re 5 to 6 times more cost effective, and they’re green – if you don’t power them with coal and nuclear power.

“Cost of operation” has a bigger impact on companies with fleets and delivery services, where fuel savings translate into higher profits. For private individuals, there are other factors. Currently, our economic future is uncertain. People are losing their jobs and homes, and others are wondering if they will be next – The recession illustrates what economic forces and decreased consumer confidence can do to the auto industry and car sales. Sales of EVs, Plug-ins and all the rest will also depend on our economic forecast. Right now, one out of ten in the U.S. are out of work and suffering.

The cheapest EVs such as the Mitsubishi Mi-EV is expected to be $40K. Even with a government subsidy of $7K, it will still be $33K plus tax. The up-front cost is not affordable to the average car buyer, when a new Honda fit can be had for $15K. In a year or two, when EVs hit the showrooms, even automakers estimate that EV sales will be 3% or less per year. They even estimate that sales of EVs and Plug-in hybrids combined will be less than 5% the first year, and from there, gradually increase. That means that 10 years from now, roughly 50-60% of new vehicles sold will still be liquid fueled, and they will be around for another 15 years.

And when you sell or trade your current vehicle, in order to buy an EV, someone else will buy it in the used car market and drive it for another 10-15 years. That is, unless you take a sledge hammer to it. The phasing-out of liquid fuels will be gradual. And likewise, biofuels will gradually replace petroleum based fuels over time. Simultaneously, where EVs and Plug-in Hybrids become dominant, the demand for liquid fuels will decrease.

I gave some “best case” scenario figures above to illustrate the potential to exploit available biofuel feedstocks. Some of this available waste may not be practical to use. Wherever we fall short in terms of exploiting waste for biofuels, Algae and Duckweed, the king and queen of biomass, will take up the slack, and then some. I did Not include them in my 135 billion gallon a year estimate. Algae and Duckweed could push that much higher. There are now over 5 companies reporting over 100 tons of algal biomass per acre per year.

And I agree – that biofuels will have a big impact on power production – especially from algae. Hugo: “Still I see biofuels being used to power powerplants (baseline production) more than in vehicles (except aviation and maybe ships)”…I agree:

Check-out an article by John Davis (Domestic Fuel) called: “Company Developing Algal Farm & Power Plant”. This is about a company called

Renewed World Energies Corp. “turning a 5 acre site into an algae biomass farm that will make biodiesel as well as producing electricity, in Georgetown, South Carolina”. They have their algae production up to 125 dry tons per acre per year, along with several other companies that I have come across.

Another company: Genifuel President, Jim Oyler, has a cost effective process that gasifies wet algae into synth gas to run conventional turbines, as a renewable replacement for coal and natural gas. Algae can also be grown heterotrophically on sugars derived from fermented biomass waste. This is what Solarzyme is doing. They are integrating biomass waste and algae. So we may instead take our waste, feed it to algae which double every 6-8 hrs and multiply the feedstock, and then convert the algae into biofuels and electric power to charge EVs and Plug-in hybrids.

The different outlooks of Hugo and AK is that: Hugo sees the EV as the dominant road vehicle (Especially in Europe), and AK sees the Plug-in Hybrid with domestic biofueled range-extender as the dominant vehicle (Especially in the U.S.).

How EVs unfold in the U.S. is going to be different than how EVs unfold in Europe and other countries. EVs adapt well to urban use – not long distance interstate travel, that is, until the infrastructure is in place. Americans are not waiting for Europe to show them the way. A large number of major cities in the United States are already implementing local EV charging networks.

EVs may become main-stream for urban use, in time. But in a country that is spread-out like the U.S., where Americans do a lot of commuting and long distance interstate driving, plug-in hybrids with range extender engines will be the mainstream vehicle, not EVs. We will still need fuel for these range extender engines. That will be renewable domestic ethanol, biodiesel, and synthetic fuels, etc.. Maybe even unrefined biomass slurries. One candidate for a range extender is the Green Revolution Engine, which can run on raw algae.

EVs are not going to be the same price as conventional vehicles, due to the high cost of the battery pack, even with gov. subsidies. That should change over time, with new technologies bringing the price of batteries down and the power up. Placing a higher demand on Lithium will drive the price up further, so we will need to use much less lithium, or move to something more plentiful.

EEStore’s ultra-capacitor is promising, but still not here yet. So we don’t know if that’s real just yet. Lighter materials, more efficient electric motors, exterior vehicle bodies covered in solar paint, etc., will all make EVs more affordable and more practical. EVs will come. But how fast. And will they dominate? Or will Plug-in hybrids with range extender engines dominate?

Hugo – You say “ the rate a user changes vehicle it’s related with the advantage and cost of the operation”. From your point of view and from an efficiency standpoint, that’s correct. But why did the SUV become the mainstream vehicle in the U.S.? “Cost of operation” is a major factor for a segment of car buyers, but it’s not the biggest driving force. Practicality is. If “cost of operation” was the driving force, then we would all be riding bicycles and scooters. But that’s not practical. In the U.S., it’s SUVs, pick-ups and 4 door sedans, with efficiency the secondary segment of the market. Especially in Europe, the higher price of fuel is a factor in the buying decision. Car sales do fluctuate with the price of fuel. When fuel spiked in 2008, you couldn’t give an SUV away in the U.S. Now they’re back in style, with the lower fuel prices.

Honda was the first to introduce a high mileage hybrid vehicle, the first Insight. That didn’t catch on. It was a pricey two seater – a great commuter car, but not practical for the family. And gas was too cheap at the time. The Prius came next, and that did gradually catch on, despite being $10K more expensive than the same size conventional car. But the “lower cost of operation” hybrids still represent less than 3% of the car market. Will EVs take a bigger market share? Yes – because they’re well-suited for urban use, they’re 5 to 6 times more cost effective, and they’re green – if you don’t power them with coal and nuclear power.

“Cost of operation” has a bigger impact on companies with fleets and delivery services, where fuel savings translate into higher profits. For private individuals, there are other factors. Currently, our economic future is uncertain. People are losing their jobs and homes, and others are wondering if they will be next – The recession illustrates what economic forces and decreased consumer confidence can do to the auto industry and car sales. Sales of EVs, Plug-ins and all the rest will also depend on our economic forecast. Right now, one out of ten in the U.S. are out of work and suffering.

The cheapest EVs such as the Mitsubishi Mi-EV is expected to be $40K. Even with a government subsidy of $7K, it will still be $33K plus tax. The up-front cost is not affordable to the average car buyer, when a new Honda fit can be had for $15K. In a year or two, when EVs hit the showrooms, even automakers estimate that EV sales will be 3% or less per year. They even estimate that sales of EVs and Plug-in hybrids combined will be less than 5% the first year, and from there, gradually increase. That means that 10 years from now, roughly 50-60% of new vehicles sold will still be liquid fueled, and they will be around for another 15 years.

And when you sell or trade your current vehicle, in order to buy an EV, someone else will buy it in the used car market and drive it for another 10-15 years. That is, unless you take a sledge hammer to it. The phasing-out of liquid fuels will be gradual. And likewise, biofuels will gradually replace petroleum based fuels over time. Simultaneously, where EVs and Plug-in Hybrids become dominant, the demand for liquid fuels will decrease.

I gave some “best case” scenario figures above to illustrate the potential to exploit available biofuel feedstocks. Some of this available waste may not be practical to use. Wherever we fall short in terms of exploiting waste for biofuels, Algae and Duckweed, the king and queen of biomass, will take up the slack, and then some. I did Not include them in my 135 billion gallon a year estimate. Algae and Duckweed could push that much higher. There are now over 5 companies reporting over 100 tons of algal biomass per acre per year.

And I agree – that biofuels will have a big impact on power production – especially from algae. Hugo: “Still I see biofuels being used to power powerplants (baseline production) more than in vehicles (except aviation and maybe ships)”…I agree:

Check-out an article by John Davis (Domestic Fuel) called: “Company Developing Algal Farm & Power Plant”. This is about a company called

Renewed World Energies Corp. “turning a 5 acre site into an algae biomass farm that will make biodiesel as well as producing electricity, in Georgetown, South Carolina”. They have their algae production up to 125 dry tons per acre per year, along with several other companies that I have come across.

Another company: Genifuel President, Jim Oyler, has a cost effective process that gasifies wet algae into synth gas to run conventional turbines, as a renewable replacement for coal and natural gas. Algae can also be grown heterotrophically on sugars derived from fermented biomass waste. This is what Solarzyme is doing. They are integrating biomass waste and algae. So we may instead take our waste, feed it to algae which double every 6-8 hrs and multiply the feedstock, and then convert the algae into biofuels and electric power to charge EVs and Plug-in hybrids.

The different outlooks of Hugo and AK is that: Hugo sees the EV as the dominant road vehicle (Especially in Europe), and AK sees the Plug-in Hybrid with domestic biofueled range-extender as the dominant vehicle (Especially in the U.S.).

Another very important fact is energy security we do not have it and funding is very much needed to move us to the time That Will Come, when fossil fuel is no longer available.

Another very important fact is energy security we do not have it and funding is very much needed to move us to the time That Will Come, when fossil fuel is no longer available.

I’m pro electric cars – but even if he said that, the numbers show DOE investment is being aimed at a wide range of clean energy sources – subscribe to the DOE newsletter at http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/subscribe.cfm

and you’d see the plentiful evidence – there’s been investment for next generation non food competitive biofuels AND electric vehicles.

I’m pro electric cars – but even if he said that, the numbers show DOE investment is being aimed at a wide range of clean energy sources – subscribe to the DOE newsletter at http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/subscribe.cfm

and you’d see the plentiful evidence – there’s been investment for next generation non food competitive biofuels AND electric vehicles.

1 – The rate a user changes vehicle it’s related with the advantage and cost of the operation. With that said it doesn’t make any sense to compare the hybrid rate of sales with a electric rate. The reason is simple. If the electric car has a similar cost to a gas car (subsidies, etc…) then from the moment the car is bought the owner starts to make serious savings (now, 5 to 6 times).

2 – I don’t think (but I might be wrong) that all, or even a considerable amount of vehicles on the road today can use biofuels (or all the biofuels). If that’s the case, then the same principle (20 to 25 years) applies to biofuels.

3 – All the numbers that “AK” presented before, even if they are correct, tend to be a best case scenario. Usually not all the waste, crops, etc.. can be used. The amount of energy that can actually be retrieved at a large enough scale it’s unknown (at least to me).

4 – To me, it would easier to move directly to electric. This doesn’t mean that I don’t believe in biofules, I do, but not as a main source of power for transportation.

The best advantage that I can see in most biofuels (2º and 3º generation) is the use of waste products. This allows us to reduce waste while producing energy. A win/win situation. Still I see biofuels being used to power powerplants (baseline production) more than in vehicles (except aviation and maybe ships).

Still, you are all lucky, Europe is going to serve as a test case for you. In the next five years a big number of Europeans country’s will finished installing nation wide recharge stations for electric vehicles at the same time that a big number of electric vehicles will hit the market.

You can wait and see what happens.

1 – The rate a user changes vehicle it’s related with the advantage and cost of the operation. With that said it doesn’t make any sense to compare the hybrid rate of sales with a electric rate. The reason is simple. If the electric car has a similar cost to a gas car (subsidies, etc…) then from the moment the car is bought the owner starts to make serious savings (now, 5 to 6 times).

2 – I don’t think (but I might be wrong) that all, or even a considerable amount of vehicles on the road today can use biofuels (or all the biofuels). If that’s the case, then the same principle (20 to 25 years) applies to biofuels.

3 – All the numbers that “AK” presented before, even if they are correct, tend to be a best case scenario. Usually not all the waste, crops, etc.. can be used. The amount of energy that can actually be retrieved at a large enough scale it’s unknown (at least to me).

4 – To me, it would easier to move directly to electric. This doesn’t mean that I don’t believe in biofules, I do, but not as a main source of power for transportation.

The best advantage that I can see in most biofuels (2º and 3º generation) is the use of waste products. This allows us to reduce waste while producing energy. A win/win situation. Still I see biofuels being used to power powerplants (baseline production) more than in vehicles (except aviation and maybe ships).

Still, you are all lucky, Europe is going to serve as a test case for you. In the next five years a big number of Europeans country’s will finished installing nation wide recharge stations for electric vehicles at the same time that a big number of electric vehicles will hit the market.

You can wait and see what happens.