The Future of Diesel in the US: Analysis

Even though Honda and Toyota recently shelved plans to bring a diesel car to the U.S., there’s still a steady, slow increase of diesels—mostly from the German manufacturers. Mercedes, VW and Audi all offer at least two diesel models. Ford recently announced an all-new truck diesel.

BMW is also increasingly bringing diesels stateside. In addition to the BMW X5 diesel, the company now offers a diesel in the 3 Series sports sedan, the BMW 335d. “We believe diesels have a future in the U.S,” Jim O’Donnell, president of BMW North America recently told the media, “By 2014, between 10 and 20 percent of our mix will be diesels.” BMW isn’t relying solely on diesels, however. O’Donnell said, “We’re putting our money in all the technologies.” Soon BMW will offer X6 and 7 Series hybrids. Every automaker has some type of hybrid either currently for sale or on the drawing board as well.

Except for the VW Jetta TDI and, to a lesser extent, the new Audi A3 TDI, the diesels we can get in the U.S. are expensive premium cars and SUVs. So even if more diesels are coming, when will we see the small, 50-mpg-and-better economy diesels that populate Europe? Don’t hold your breath. Except for VW, the manufacturers we spoke with said that at current fuel prices, American small-car buyers aren’t willing to pay extra for diesels. What we’ll have in the future instead is a mix of powertrains. Gas engines will, for the foreseeable future, dominate our cars. According to JD Power’s Omotoso, hybrids are projected to become 9.5 percent of the passenger-car market by 2015 (up from 3 percent this year), yet diesels will grow to become just 3.5 percent of the car market here by 2015, up from less than 1 percent this year. However if the U.S. fuel prices take off more abruptly than analysts predict, we could see a deeper penetration of both diesel and hybrid vehicles.

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Comments

  1. Tim Cleland says:

    Good article. I think diesel cars will have their own niche market. I doubt people who buy a Prius really care about payback period. I think the same would be true of diesel buyers. Moreover, I think a manufacturer would do quite well, to make a diesel that welcomes B100 (or, failing that, at least B50) without voiding the warranty.

    “Reducing NOx to nitrogen and oxygen is much harder with a diesel engine because the exhaust is typically cooler and contains less oxygen compared to a gas engine.”

    Just wanted to add that the reason for the above is efficiency: diesels convert more of the heat energy into mechanical energy leaving the exhaust cooler.

  2. Tim Cleland says:

    Good article. I think diesel cars will have their own niche market. I doubt people who buy a Prius really care about payback period. I think the same would be true of diesel buyers. Moreover, I think a manufacturer would do quite well, to make a diesel that welcomes B100 (or, failing that, at least B50) without voiding the warranty.

    “Reducing NOx to nitrogen and oxygen is much harder with a diesel engine because the exhaust is typically cooler and contains less oxygen compared to a gas engine.”

    Just wanted to add that the reason for the above is efficiency: diesels convert more of the heat energy into mechanical energy leaving the exhaust cooler.

  3. Tim Cleland says:

    Good article. I think diesel cars will have their own niche market. I doubt people who buy a Prius really care about payback period. I think the same would be true of diesel buyers. Moreover, I think a manufacturer would do quite well, to make a diesel that welcomes B100 (or, failing that, at least B50) without voiding the warranty.

    “Reducing NOx to nitrogen and oxygen is much harder with a diesel engine because the exhaust is typically cooler and contains less oxygen compared to a gas engine.”

    Just wanted to add that the reason for the above is efficiency: diesels convert more of the heat energy into mechanical energy leaving the exhaust cooler.

  4. russ says:

    Very interesting and cleared up a few questions in my mind.

  5. russ says:

    Very interesting and cleared up a few questions in my mind.

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