Is the Tesla Model S Really For the Rest of Us?
What does a Tesla Model S really cost to operate? Crunch the numbers and the results may be a bit surprising.
By now we’ve all heard about the new four door, seven seater (5 adults + 2 kids), all electric eco monster from Tesla — the Model S. We’ve seen the pictures of the gorgeous beast and we’ve had our chance to let the lust settle.
But the thing that’s been bothering me, and surely many of you, is that it still feels like Tesla is making cars with a decidedly un-populist bent. Tesla has been claiming for a long time now that their business plan is to start with the high end market, make some money, learn some lessons, and subsequently release cars that the rest of us can afford — using that money and those lessons to get there.
- » See also: Is the Renault-Nissan Alliance Going in Two Different Electric Car Directions?
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You know what though? For a sophomore offering, the Model S is still gonna cost $50,000 to start — and that’s with the low end battery pack that can take you a scant 160 miles. Even so, Tesla claims that the Model S is a car for the rest of us after you consider the cost to operate it over its lifespan as compared to a typical $35,000 gas guzzler.
So, being the bit of a dork that I am, my immediate thought was to test Tesla’s theory myself and pop some numbers into a spreadsheet. My basic assumptions were:
- My hypothetical average car buyer will need a loan to buy the car.
- To get a yearly payment, I set that loan at a 5.5% interest rate for 5 years.
- In my simplified world, after 5 years the loan payments stop and all you have left are energy costs (fuel/electricity) and service costs.
- My hypothetical average car buyer is financing the whole price of the car.
- Electricity costs remain constant over the life of the car and follow the current US average of 11.47 cents per kWh.
- I’m estimating that the Model S has a 4 mile per kWh efficiency which results in about a 3 cent per mile cost given average US electricity prices.
- Service cost for an electric vehicle will be about $50 per year over the lifespan of the vehicle. In the 10th year of ownership I’ve added a $4,000 service charge to that base level to replace the battery. Tesla claims battery replacement will cost “well under $5,000″ and that the battery pack will last 10 years (this value was changed from $500 after it came to light that the autobloggreen post from which I obtained this number had a typo).
- Service and maintenance cost for a gas vehicle will be about $600 per year over the lifespan of the vehicle (this value was changed after reader input in the comments section).
- My hypothetical average car buyer drives about 15,000 miles per year, half on the highway and half in town.
- My hypothetical $35,000 gas guzzler gets 20 mpg in the city and 26 mpg on the highway.
After crunching the numbers, I’ve made four graphs (below) that show the cumulative costs of owning the Model S vs. owning a hypothetical $35,000 gas guzzler. The four graphs differ based on the price of fuel: $2/gal, $3/gal, $4/gal, and $5/gal.
You can see for yourself that at $2/gallon gas it would take 15 years before the Model S made up for its initial cost. However, at $3/gallon it’s 8-9 years, at $4/gallon it’s 6-7 years, and at $5/gallon the costs are nearly identical for the first 5 years. It’s worth noting that in all cases, after you make up for the initial cost of the Model S, the savings really start to pile on.
So, the question is, how much of premium is it worth to you to reduce fossil fuel consumption and dependence on foreign oil and how long are you willing to wait for the payback?
Plus, you never know when oil prices will jump back up to $4/gallon — or go even higher. In that case, you could think of a Model S purchase as a hedge against future oil prices.
My thought is: GM should declare bancrupcy; decrease pention and bond costs; use the money from the stimulus package to buy tesla; use the money from the factory upgrade bill to retool their factories to mass produce teslas and build a variety of models(mini van, crossover vehicle, compact sedan) on the existing chasis. Mass production of the vehicle will lower these costs and move GM into the future, leap frogging Japan.
Ron, you better stop with your common sense analysis. You’re going to scare the hippies.
Of course the production model isn’t going to seat 7 people. Anybody with an ounce of common sense knows that already, and your mathematical analysis of the car’s proportions and dimensions proves it too. But the “electric cars are the future” crowd don’t want to hear reality. They seem to be so deluded at the moment that they honestly believe that they will have electric cars in production at an affordable price sometime soon. Again, anybody with an ounce of common sense knows that this is just a pipe dream.
If you want to know what electric “cars” are good for, go to a golf course and observe them in action. Those are about the only kinds of electric vehicles that most people will ever want and/or be able to afford.
The only way that electric cars would EVER be feasible, is if they came with their own nuclear fusion power plant built into the engine compartment to constantly generate the electricity required, and to ensure that a mother driving home with her two kids in the back during a major snowstorm in February won’t get stranded and killed because her battery gave out even though her drive wasn’t more than 15 miles total distance.
And we all know that self-powered cars with their own miniature fusion reactor won’t be coming for at least another 100 years, and by that time, the whole idea of “car travel” will more than likely be an antiquated concept at best.
To those who truly believe that you’ll be driving an affordable, reliable, safe electric car powered by solar panels, you guys really need to get out of your tree huts and go take a few courses in electrical and mechanical engineering to bring yourselves back into the real world.
I hate the oil companies as much as anyone, and I have no desire to continually fuel up my tank for $100 every week, but guess what — I’m a realist, and I’m smart enough to know that electric cars are not going to replace gas-powered vehicles. The only technology which will do that is hydrogen-powered cars, and those will still be expensive and will still require many years before we have hydrogen fueling stations all over the country (and all over the world), but at least you know that your hydrogen car won’t leave you stranded on the road because your battery lost its charge.
Bottom line: electric cars will never be mainstream. The sooner everybody accepts it, the better off we’ll all be. It’s completely ridiculous how much time and effort is being wasted in trying to produce an “affordable” electric car to replace a gas-powered car. NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN, PEOPLE.
No one seems to be taking into account the intangible benefits of the Model S. It seems to be comparable in luxury and technology to a BMW 5 series, Audi A6, Lexus GS, Infiniti M, etc. People drive those models based on personal taste, status, driving pleasure, and ego-gratification. Well-off buyers are willing to pay a lot of money for gas-guzzling cars and SUVs that have features that only benefit the individual consumer. So for a progressive consumer who values cleaner technology, the Model S provides intangible benefits that cannot be replicated by the existing offerings, and it paves the way for subsequent generations of products that could very well benefit the health of our planet. We can sit around and debate the actual net reduction in CO2, or an “apples to apples” comparison of the cost of existing ICE-powered autos versus the Model S, or we can recognize that progress is evolutionary and that the Model S represents an important step towards energy independence and cleaner air (notwithstanding the counter-arguments about coal-fired power plants; solar, wind, geothermal, natural gas and hydro energy sources can provide “cleaner” electricity). No one ever seems to complain when car makers come out with faster or more luxurious models year after year, and people line up on lease rollover to lease the bigger better deal. So I think that some of the critics of the efforts of the auto industry to build hybrids and electric cars fail to take into consideration the fact that consumerism is rampant anyway, so how can it be a bad thing that we are promoting consumption of eco-products that have less of an impact than existing products being consumed? People are going to consume no matter what. Our entire world economy is based on consumption. It would be nice to believe that people could consume less, but it usually takes something like a recession to curb consumption (as we are seeing now). When the economy fires up again, people are going to consume again. And the automakers who have invested in electric and hybrid cars will have had a chance to place their new products into the consumption cycle, except now we as a society are going to add the “value” of clean-technology to our list of reasons to consume. And that’s not such a bad thing, now is it?
My Durango, 1998, does not take more than 11/12 miles p.g. (city) 15/16 (hwy). Where do you get those numbers? Than you change spark plugs every 3,000 miles, oil same, add some in between changes. And forget occasional break downs, common in a thermal engine because the operation temperatures etc. Without thinking of starting the engine in this (Minnesota) climate. Replace the battery every two years if you like to drive to work in the winter. If we compare the operational costs we MUST put in the equation ALL numbers not only those that can support our point of view. No more pollution. No longer depending from the middle-east moody dictators. Yes, lets go electric.
Can you do a price comparison for hawaii?
It’s $2.50 a gallon for gas. I drive a 40 mpg Prius, and electricity is 20 cents a kWh.
What’s my payback? Does it make sense to upgrade?
Random comments.
The “one moving part” refers to the device that creates motion. Engine or Motor.
The old Tesla 1.5 two speed transmission was said to have 17 moving parts. The new fixed gearbox certainly has less. Compare that count to an Automatic or Manual gearbox with pedal, clutch and stick shift.
All of these have oil and to be replaced. EVs have cooling fluid as well.
Electric cars use no energy sitting in traffic, they are simply off. Unlike idling ICE motors EVs actually get better mileage in stop and go than on highways.
An Elephant in the room in the price per hour that Tesla can charge for being the only game in town.
Of course you can get non-drivetrain bits serviced at other shops which brings up the question about the Model S bodywork. Is it Carbon fiber and more expensive to repair?
Here in Denmark there’s a tax exemption for all EVs cars, taxes that usually amount to 80-120% of it’s value, think of it as a subsidy in the neighbourhood of 50%. With 300 miles you can go anywhere in denmark.
Let me just say, the entire nation is very green-minded and Tesla would have a massive hit if they can release Model S in europe in the ballpark of 40,000 euros
Roger;
You didn’t give enough info, but it looks like you’d save about $500/yr + maintenance/service cost difference, using Matthew’s http://www.matthewb.id.au/media/Electric_Vehicle_Calculator.html site.
Ron and Tuyen, you dipsticks! Here’s the visible proof:
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1019775_video-tesla-model-s-test-drive
Mange la Merde et Mourir!
For your future (about 2014/5 +) energy source, check out focusfusion.org . At about ¼¢/kwh!
For those kvetching about a proper comparison being the $50,000 ICE car, that’s not the point. He’s testing the TeslaMotors claim that it’s competitive with a $35,000 ICE cost-of-ownership. All the extra features and quality are bonus!
What does a Tesla Model S really cost to operate? Crunch the numbers and the results may be a bit surprising.
hi Nick Chambers,
would you please, email me the excel sheets that you made to compare the whole life cost comparison of electric vehicle with gasoline one. please
i am writing a thesis and i need one.i am not good at excel, i asked several friends of mine but no one know. so please help me that..
i dont need the figure nubmers.. i have my own cost figures, i just need the way you make comparison graph and use depreciation and cumulative cost etc.
my graph are not coming right. thanks
saj
mycanal@hotmail.com