How will a perfected cellulosic process (on a massive scale) change this equation?

Could this technology have an impact on how many farmers choose to raise food crops, as opposed to fuel crops?

I know the questions do nothing to address the current situation, but it seems to me that we, as a nation, are barreling down the road while looking only at the pavement immediately in front of us, instead of looking further ahead down the road. That’s a recipe for disaster, but it’s the recipe that got us where we are today.

I ask these questions out of sympathy for the farmers, who have been manipulated by a greedy marketplace into a very difficult situation, and are hobbled by an increasingly out of touch government.

I strongly believe that cellulosic technology will open a broad spectrum of cash crops better suited for ethanol than corn. I’m sure some farmers out there agree.

I don’t pretend to understand farm subsidies, so please pardon my naiviety on the subject. But common sense tells me that money invested in first, the new technology (cellulosic production), and then in machinery (planters, harvesters, etc.) and a supporting infrastructure (transportation and distribution of crop and product) would be money better spent for the future of farming.

I have been told that many farmers are paid to NOT plant as much of a crop as they could potentially plant. If that is true, then it makes this whole food vs. fuel arguement stupid and irrelavent.

If ethanol plants or starving Ethernopians need more corn, then plant it and tell the government to give the money to the tree huggers trying to save the Farting Tree Bat. (It makes as much sense!)

But I guess that’s the brilliance of our government.

As usual, I agree with Mark_in_Texas. Until we step up as a nation of inventors and problem solvers, instead of a nation of politically frighten hand wringers, then we will be at the mercy of the likes of Pootie and Ahmadinnerjacket.

The messiah-elect is in for some rude awakenings. Let’s hope he can do more than just vote “Present”.

How will a perfected cellulosic process (on a massive scale) change this equation?

Could this technology have an impact on how many farmers choose to raise food crops, as opposed to fuel crops?

I know the questions do nothing to address the current situation, but it seems to me that we, as a nation, are barreling down the road while looking only at the pavement immediately in front of us, instead of looking further ahead down the road. That’s a recipe for disaster, but it’s the recipe that got us where we are today.

I ask these questions out of sympathy for the farmers, who have been manipulated by a greedy marketplace into a very difficult situation, and are hobbled by an increasingly out of touch government.

I strongly believe that cellulosic technology will open a broad spectrum of cash crops better suited for ethanol than corn. I’m sure some farmers out there agree.

I don’t pretend to understand farm subsidies, so please pardon my naiviety on the subject. But common sense tells me that money invested in first, the new technology (cellulosic production), and then in machinery (planters, harvesters, etc.) and a supporting infrastructure (transportation and distribution of crop and product) would be money better spent for the future of farming.

I have been told that many farmers are paid to NOT plant as much of a crop as they could potentially plant. If that is true, then it makes this whole food vs. fuel arguement stupid and irrelavent.

If ethanol plants or starving Ethernopians need more corn, then plant it and tell the government to give the money to the tree huggers trying to save the Farting Tree Bat. (It makes as much sense!)

But I guess that’s the brilliance of our government.

As usual, I agree with Mark_in_Texas. Until we step up as a nation of inventors and problem solvers, instead of a nation of politically frighten hand wringers, then we will be at the mercy of the likes of Pootie and Ahmadinnerjacket.

The messiah-elect is in for some rude awakenings. Let’s hope he can do more than just vote “Present”.

Let me look into my crystal ball and predict that a lot of acres that were planted in corn this year will be planted in soybeans next year to avoid the cost of anhydrous ammonia and because many farmers who had been rotating between corn and soybeans have been planting corn every year because of the high prices.

The reduced supply of corn is going to tend to keep prices from falling as much and the increased supply of soybeans is going to keep soybean and vegetable oil prices low. I am not sure that the low vegetable oil prices are going to be low enough to make biodiesel economically viable. The reduced demand for anhydrous ammonia and corn seed are going to result in reduced prices for those commodities so that farmers can make a profit even at $3.00 a bushel and 175 bushels an acre. With reduced corn prices, the ethanol plants will be able to make ethanol and sell it for 10 to 30 cents a gallon less than the wholesale price of gasoline.

The problem is that this new stability might not happen next year. It might take two or three years to stabilize if there are no new wild price shocks caused by trader speculation, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or some damned thing in the Middle East.

My personal guess is that since Russia is being hurt by oil prices less than $60 a barrel, they are going to stir something up, probably by helping Iran build a nuclear bomb. Once Iran goes nuclear, they will be able to sponsor insurgencies against all their neighbors without fear of reprisal. Think of a couple of hijacked super tankers blocking the Straights of Hormuz. This will bring the price of oil back up where the Russians want it.

Let me look into my crystal ball and predict that a lot of acres that were planted in corn this year will be planted in soybeans next year to avoid the cost of anhydrous ammonia and because many farmers who had been rotating between corn and soybeans have been planting corn every year because of the high prices.

The reduced supply of corn is going to tend to keep prices from falling as much and the increased supply of soybeans is going to keep soybean and vegetable oil prices low. I am not sure that the low vegetable oil prices are going to be low enough to make biodiesel economically viable. The reduced demand for anhydrous ammonia and corn seed are going to result in reduced prices for those commodities so that farmers can make a profit even at $3.00 a bushel and 175 bushels an acre. With reduced corn prices, the ethanol plants will be able to make ethanol and sell it for 10 to 30 cents a gallon less than the wholesale price of gasoline.

The problem is that this new stability might not happen next year. It might take two or three years to stabilize if there are no new wild price shocks caused by trader speculation, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or some damned thing in the Middle East.

My personal guess is that since Russia is being hurt by oil prices less than $60 a barrel, they are going to stir something up, probably by helping Iran build a nuclear bomb. Once Iran goes nuclear, they will be able to sponsor insurgencies against all their neighbors without fear of reprisal. Think of a couple of hijacked super tankers blocking the Straights of Hormuz. This will bring the price of oil back up where the Russians want it.

Let me look into my crystal ball and predict that a lot of acres that were planted in corn this year will be planted in soybeans next year to avoid the cost of anhydrous ammonia and because many farmers who had been rotating between corn and soybeans have been planting corn every year because of the high prices.

The reduced supply of corn is going to tend to keep prices from falling as much and the increased supply of soybeans is going to keep soybean and vegetable oil prices low. I am not sure that the low vegetable oil prices are going to be low enough to make biodiesel economically viable. The reduced demand for anhydrous ammonia and corn seed are going to result in reduced prices for those commodities so that farmers can make a profit even at $3.00 a bushel and 175 bushels an acre. With reduced corn prices, the ethanol plants will be able to make ethanol and sell it for 10 to 30 cents a gallon less than the wholesale price of gasoline.

The problem is that this new stability might not happen next year. It might take two or three years to stabilize if there are no new wild price shocks caused by trader speculation, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or some damned thing in the Middle East.

My personal guess is that since Russia is being hurt by oil prices less than $60 a barrel, they are going to stir something up, probably by helping Iran build a nuclear bomb. Once Iran goes nuclear, they will be able to sponsor insurgencies against all their neighbors without fear of reprisal. Think of a couple of hijacked super tankers blocking the Straights of Hormuz. This will bring the price of oil back up where the Russians want it.

LOW COST feedstocks for the BTL market are not and never will be CORN.

If you’re not the low cost provider in the end you go out of business.

Like many other farmers I presold half of my expected crop before prices soared in the summer. Due to the heavy rain last Spring much of our planting was delayed my almost a month (resulting in much larger drying costs this Fall) and some fields were washed out. We didn’t dare sell more grain by the time prices reached $6.-7.00 because we weren’t sure we were even going to be able to cover our earlier sales.

We also are fortunate to own all of our own farmland but we certainly aren’t getting rich!

Sherry

Like many other farmers I presold half of my expected crop before prices soared in the summer. Due to the heavy rain last Spring much of our planting was delayed my almost a month (resulting in much larger drying costs this Fall) and some fields were washed out. We didn’t dare sell more grain by the time prices reached $6.-7.00 because we weren’t sure we were even going to be able to cover our earlier sales.

We also are fortunate to own all of our own farmland but we certainly aren’t getting rich!

Sherry