Where We’re Going We Won’t Even Need Lithium: A Neurotic Look at Our Energy Future
Editor’s Note: Gas 2.0 writer Karen Pease has written a response to this post entitled “Lithium Counterpoint: No Shortage For Electric Cars.”
So I stumbled across a time machine the other day and made my way into the future. I noticed something rather bizarre while I was riding my hover-board and wearing a pair of Air McFlys. First I couldn’t pump any more gas into my Delorean, so I asked the good people of the undisclosed future what they used for fuel. They used lithium-powered batteries, and their supply was running out…
For the record, I support all forms of alternative energy. Anything but oil I say, it’s a relic of the Cold War as far as I’m concerned. But what will be the future of energy? Well, my time machine wasn’t completely accurate. While I sincerely hope that we can establish an electric infrastructure, it appears that the market will decide our energy future (for more on the economics, read my last post).
- » See also: Leo Motors CEO Dr. Robert Kang on the Future of Electric Vehicles
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In the scientific community, we keep running into this massive roadblock known commonly as thermodynamics. It’s an intimidating word for an intimidating world-view. Simply, thermodynamics states that we just reuse matter. Matter cannot be created or destroyed, it can only be converted. It appears that we will only be converting matter to energy for the next, oh I don’t know, maybe million years or so? Sorry, my imagination couldn’t take me much further past 2015 (plus I had a broken flux-capacitor).
There is a huge philosophical implication here. Won’t we eventually run out of everything we can possibly use for energy? Following this logic, that would mean that we could only use ethanol from corn to power the world’s economy. I believe in progress above all, and I sincerely hope that someone, somewhere is thinking about completely redesigning the engine. According to William Tahil of the Meridian International Research Group, the Earth only has 35 million tons of Lithium available and we only know where to find 15 million tons of that total. I know that seems like a lot, but remember what we used to think about oil? Our great grandfathers probably shouldn’t have bathed in it for health reasons and our futures.
So maybe it is the Woody Allen inside of me talking, but isn’t it totally feasible that we run out of lithium someday just like we are running out of gasoline? The age of cheap gasoline is over, and soon the age of relatively cheap gasoline will be a memory as well. As a nation we hardly even blinked. There was some yelling by that old guy running for president about removing a gas tax to save us from high prices, but I feel like people would rather just deal with the price hike than change lifestyles.
After a bit of research I found that the lithium supply more closely mirrors our silicon supply. We have enough of it to theoretically meet our demands for now and the foreseeable future, its just that most of it is currently tied up. Lithium is a highly reactive element and is very rarely found on its own, ready to make into a lithium battery (like silicon, which is readily found in sand, but needs to be separated to be useful).
I know this all seems a little far-fetched, but just think about what pulling lithium from our ecosystems would do to them. All ecosystems are cyclic and each part is important to how it runs on its own. We won’t fully understand how lithium fits into the world until we start pulling it out. If everyone drove electric cars (and more than one, like a normal American family), imagine how much lithium would be needed! On the other hand, not tapping into lithium for electric cars would be like not doing homework because the universe is expanding. It just doesn’t make economic sense. It’s best to ignore these very large and general fears because they are inevitable. But there is one thing that we can do, especially a nation as rich as America. We can strive for efficiency.
We should not worry so much about a new energy infrastructure as much as we should worry about being efficient with the supplies we do have. Efficiency is key to never having an energy crisis again. I got some great feedback on my last post stressing efficiency over all forms of alternate energy, and I couldn’t agree more with that sentiment. We’re not talking just about transportation, but we need American industries to stop wasting gasoline and investing in more sustainable energy sources. If we had been worrying all along, none of this would be an issue.
It’s a fast rule of economics that we never run out of anything because when we do we just find a new resource to fill the void. Sorry to get neurotic again, but that is an awfully scary concept. What happens when we get to the point where there is nothing else to switch to? I guess worrying about that is a lot like worrying about the sun burning out. But just because it is so far away, doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
If you tend to worry a lot like me, follow these links:
- My Mileage is Better Than Your Mileage
- 100+ EcoDriving Tips to get Better Mileage in Your Car
- Toshiba’s Super-Charged Battery: Nearly Full in 5 Minutes
- Lithium Batteries
Thanks to Matt Comi for the image, under Flickr’s Creative Commons.
Here is the rest of William Tahil’s research on the element Lithium.
There is penny of iron to make internal combusion engines that run off hydrogen.
Problem: We don’t burn Lithium. It’s recyclable.
Hmm, so many people are screaming about the ‘evils’ of oil, now the same people are finding issues with the various solutions that they propose, in part or whole.
Remember, they key word is renewable or sustainable as opposed to alternative. Recycleable is good too because it is sustainable.
It’s true that matter can’t be created or destroyed but we are talking about energy for which we have an (to all intents and purposes) infinite supply from the sun.
And corn is not the only source of ethanol even in Amaerica, in fact we are rapidly moving away from feedstocks which conflict with human food sources. Cellulosic ethanol uses biomass waste as feedstock, and then there is algae….
Your research might be a bit wobbly around silicon; it is the most abundant element in the earth’s crust, which means there is quite a lot more of it than the 35 million tons of lithium you are claiming. I like your holistic thinking around taking stuff out of its natural cycle though.
Finally, the sun will eventually either implode or explode, apparently in about 4 million years. But long before that happens life on earth will have ceased to exist. I’m not sure if that will happen quickly or slowly but it is a long time away and it is inevitable whether you worry or don’t worry. Just be happy!
“Efficiency is key to never having an energy crisis again.”
You should probably read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Eric,
My goal for this post was to be a bit satirical and point out that we can’t worry too much, because anxiety is a waste of our own natural resources. If we worry about every little detail and when we are going to run out of everything, eventually one day we will. All we can really do is be happy and live our lives as efficiently as possible.
Thanks for the feedback! Keep thinking happy thoughts, positivity always makes its way to others who don’t feel the same way.
~anthony
please see my 2 reports in http://www.worldlithium.com
Also watch for further information at the Industrial Minerals symposium, Lithium Supply & Markets in Santiago, Chile, 26th -28th January 2009
Keith Evans
First of all, lithium isn’t a fuel, it’s a medium. It doesn’t get used up, and even when the battery is too shot to hold a charge, it’ll go back to the factory, and get recycled into new batteries, just like we do with lead now.
Second, the easy to get lithium is in ores and brines on land, but once that’s exhausted, there’s essentially unlimited amounts in the oceans. It just takes more energy to extract it.
In the end, availability of lithium is a non-issue; what matters is availability of energy. With enough nuke plants and electric cars, the entire world can live affluently without oil.
Oil is a “relic of the cold war”? Are you an idiot? Oil was a huge energy source long before the Cold War and will continue to be long after.
You have beclowned yourself. You lack a basic understanding of history, science, and economic. Try reading a textbook, it might help.
To quote Harlan Ellison:
“The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and stupidity.”
As long as we can get this thing: http://www.iter.org/ working we can create energy from one of those elements.