How Much Oil is Actually Left On This Planet? Should We Care?
Editor’s Note: I’m in Houston, TX, this week, celebrating the International Year of the Planet by posting on topics covered at the first ever joint meeting between the American societies of Soil Science, Geology, Crop Science and Agronomy. With a significant focus on biofuels, this conference should be rife with interesting materials.
According to Dr. Peter McCabe, a world-renowned scientist currently working at CSIRO in Australia, any realistic analysis of future energy sources can only conclude that, barring some complete and miraculous harmony between all the world’s economic superpowers, fossil fuels will dominate our energy mix for at least the next few decades — and we should just accept it.
To get a perspective on where Dr. McCabe is coming from, it struck me that he is a man who thinks in terms of quadrillions of BTUs and exajoules of energy. His views come from an analysis of global markets and global energy use. To him it probably seems that a grassroots coordinated global effort is beyond the reach of humanity.
Being a bit of a realistic skeptic myself, it seemed like it would be worth my while to temporarily suspend my deep held belief that not only is it possible for the U.S. and most of the rest of the world to kick its oil habit within a decade, but also a simple requirement for survival, and take Dr. McCabe at face value.
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You see, to me all issues are local and don’t work on a global scale. Indeed, local efforts often end up with global results. But the top-down mentality, the self-same mentality that often results in humans thinking that a particular task is beyond reach, is what precludes a person who deals in exajoules from thinking that global change is possible in a short period of time.
With that said, Dr. McCabe does have some significant food for thought. Since 1980, world energy use has gone from 250 quadrillion BTUs to about 500 quadrillion BTUs presently (see chart at right, click for larger copy). The vast majority of that growth has been in Asia, with smaller amounts coming from North America and the Middle East. Europe’s energy demand has remained rather static and Eurasia has actually seen a decline in use since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Of the 500 quadrillion BTUs the world currently uses, roughly 40% comes from oil, 24% from natural gas, 22% from coal, 8% from nuclear, and 6% from renewables (see chart below, click for larger copy). In a way, I can see Dr. McCabe’s point: with 86% of 500 quadrillion BTUs coming from fossil fuels, it’s hard to envision a way to replace that much energy with renewable sources in a short period of time. 430 quadrillion BTUs is, to me, an unimaginably large amount.
So, if Dr. McCabe is right, will the world have enough fossil fuels to keep up with demand? If we can’t completely switch to renewable energy sources for at least another 30 years (and assuming climate change doesn’t kill us off first) will the problem of peak oil rear it’s ugly head and kill us off anyways?
According to McCabe, in a nutshell the peak oil concept is fundamentally flawed because it doesn’t account for external factors.
The way he sees it, the world has plenty of remaining and untapped fossil fuel resources to keep up with demand for at least the next 30 years. From squeezing oil out of unconventional sources such as oil shales, to using new technologies to re-exploit old oil fields that had since been left as dead, to undiscovered conventional oil sources, Dr. McCabe’s opinion is that there is no impending peak oil crisis - and the same thing goes for natural gas and coal.
So, hooray. Score one for fossil fuels. But is this really good news? In some sadistic and drastic way, part of me hopes that Dr. McCabe is wrong — because if he’s right, I’m afraid it will provide no incentive to the world to make the changes that are necessary to ensure the survival of humanity.
Other Posts From the Joint Meeting in Houston:
- Biofuels are Here To Stay: What To Do About Food Supply?
- Pro-Poor Biofuel Crops: Sweet Sorghum and Cassava
- Biofuels And Security: Shedding My Western-Centric Worldview (Opinion)
Opening Image Credit: W.M. Norton, publisher of the Book “Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil” by David Goodstein
Further to my previous posting, the part I mentioned about the sun should actually read,
A single days sunshine supplies more than twenty times our daily world power consumption, all we need to do is capture it.
I have just watched the film again tonight and you need to view it a couple of times to take in all what the experts are saying is not so far away,
I know someone who works in the earth science and they say that in as little as five years things are going to start taking shape on the energy front, petrol is thought to reach ten pounds a gallon, but don’t take my word for it let see if Hubbard’s peak will have another result but in today’s modern world.
Most of the oil discovered early this century has already gone, Texas, Baku, South America and our own north sea oil is on the verge of no return, it has dropped by 220 million barrells per day, and this first quarter of new exploration for new oil reserves has gone down by 78 percent, are they not trying to tell us something here.
The film is very intresting indeed and why I have been doing what I have way before the film was made and that’s learning new skills or old skills like shoe making wheelwrighting and may more so there will be some kind of skills for the future, otherwise they will be lost for ever.
All this information is available on the W3 if one cares to look for it, we need to do something now today so we don’t stop nodding like the dinosaur pumps around the world today, it may already be too late, only time and money will out.
All the money that is owned by the very few, that lies in their banks throughout the world, will not feed us or save our enviornment, good luck to all.
Chuck said :
The idea that we can not have at lease the United States on renewable fuel by 2109 is only true if we are dumb enough to believe it. Biodiesel from algae could replace all of our petrofuel within that time, if we start now to do so. What is needed is the will and the ability to prevent the so called environmentalists and the “save the salmonella” groups from stopping the progress. Methane, the most common component of natural gas is easily manufactured and there are already conversion kits on the market for converting gasoline and diesel powered vehicles to use compressed natural gas. The USAF already has certified a large part of its fleet to fly using a 50% mixture of JP8 and 50% synthetic paraffinic kerosene. This fuel is also used for all ground support equipment already. They are working on full synthetic fuel. There are 2 different groups of airlines and aircraft manufacturers working on a full synthetic fuel for airline use.
WE can be sure that the capability to do the change is well under development. The time could be shorter than anyone expects. I see the biggest problem as convincing people who have not been near a new diesel pickup to using diesel engines in their cars. (For what is possible there run an internet search for “Jaguar XF2.7D test reports”. ) These capabilities can easily tide us over until we no longer need any petrofuel.
We should also consider that the algae which would be used for biodiesel also has a voracious appetite for CO2, and gives off as a by product large quantities of O2. The remaining algae can be used as fodder, fertilizer, or feed stock for celulastic methanol.
Batteries will surely continue to get better and better. Electric cars are coming and these biofuels will surely provide a great bridge as well as continued use where appropriate for a long time after.
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Dear Chuck
I ask you this, what makes you think the ones with the money are going to spend the best part of their money in order of as you said by tiding us over, every government and petrolchemical giant for the last 100 years has done absolutely nothing to elleviate what we are talking about today.
Oil is so cheap and abundant at the moment, the algea method is a pure pipe dream and pie in the sky at best just like the Hydrogen idea, which would take way to long to be made to work by the time we were anywhere near that goal, all the oil and ready enegry needed to carry out these tasks would be gone.
On the other hand there would be plenty of people to do the pedalling with, but not enough food to feed them.
[...] you think about what we’ll drive as we descend the other side of Hubberts Peak you just don’t think of Semi Trucks, do you? Well, luckily, somebody is thinking about a [...]
All the latest thoughts and so called innovative ideas or what ever we want to call them are like a Leedammer moment or like one of those Swiss cheeses they are so full of huge holes and over guessergramed figures that we are missing the real picture here, the Semi truck mentions the word Diesel fuel, I admit it might make a gallon of fuel go that little bit further, but burning one fuel to produce another is a sure way to burn it all, its long term effect will be the same, gone.
In this ever expanding same day next day Britain is where most of our problems lie, we would be much better off planning for the future, for local home grown products instead of wasting the energy as I have already spoken about, bringing a bucket of steam from China, sorry to be so blunt here but its just like that.
What I cannot understand is, oil is so cheap at the moment, why on earth arn’t we doing something more right now, if there are some really wierd and wonderful energy saving ideas that will help elleviate our problems, why are thay not doing it today, surely this has to be the best way out as you call it for everyone, why keep it a best kept secret until its too late, doesn’t hold water I’m affraid.
Oil is king at the moment and we had better get to the bottom of our problems before we get to the bottom of the well, or you know full well what is going to happen, prince charles has been trying to tell us about it for decades, seems no one is listening though, time will tell I suppose.
[...] By 1.3 percent. For you Peak Oil fanatics - pay special attention - 2008 also marked a REDUCTION in proven oil reserves. Since 1980 oil reserves have fallen only three times, 1990, 1998 and [...]