How Much Oil is Actually Left On This Planet? Should We Care?
Editor’s Note: I’m in Houston, TX, this week, celebrating the International Year of the Planet by posting on topics covered at the first ever joint meeting between the American societies of Soil Science, Geology, Crop Science and Agronomy. With a significant focus on biofuels, this conference should be rife with interesting materials.
According to Dr. Peter McCabe, a world-renowned scientist currently working at CSIRO in Australia, any realistic analysis of future energy sources can only conclude that, barring some complete and miraculous harmony between all the world’s economic superpowers, fossil fuels will dominate our energy mix for at least the next few decades — and we should just accept it.
To get a perspective on where Dr. McCabe is coming from, it struck me that he is a man who thinks in terms of quadrillions of BTUs and exajoules of energy. His views come from an analysis of global markets and global energy use. To him it probably seems that a grassroots coordinated global effort is beyond the reach of humanity.
Being a bit of a realistic skeptic myself, it seemed like it would be worth my while to temporarily suspend my deep held belief that not only is it possible for the U.S. and most of the rest of the world to kick its oil habit within a decade, but also a simple requirement for survival, and take Dr. McCabe at face value.
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You see, to me all issues are local and don’t work on a global scale. Indeed, local efforts often end up with global results. But the top-down mentality, the self-same mentality that often results in humans thinking that a particular task is beyond reach, is what precludes a person who deals in exajoules from thinking that global change is possible in a short period of time.
With that said, Dr. McCabe does have some significant food for thought. Since 1980, world energy use has gone from 250 quadrillion BTUs to about 500 quadrillion BTUs presently (see chart at right, click for larger copy). The vast majority of that growth has been in Asia, with smaller amounts coming from North America and the Middle East. Europe’s energy demand has remained rather static and Eurasia has actually seen a decline in use since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Of the 500 quadrillion BTUs the world currently uses, roughly 40% comes from oil, 24% from natural gas, 22% from coal, 8% from nuclear, and 6% from renewables (see chart below, click for larger copy). In a way, I can see Dr. McCabe’s point: with 86% of 500 quadrillion BTUs coming from fossil fuels, it’s hard to envision a way to replace that much energy with renewable sources in a short period of time. 430 quadrillion BTUs is, to me, an unimaginably large amount.
So, if Dr. McCabe is right, will the world have enough fossil fuels to keep up with demand? If we can’t completely switch to renewable energy sources for at least another 30 years (and assuming climate change doesn’t kill us off first) will the problem of peak oil rear it’s ugly head and kill us off anyways?
According to McCabe, in a nutshell the peak oil concept is fundamentally flawed because it doesn’t account for external factors.
The way he sees it, the world has plenty of remaining and untapped fossil fuel resources to keep up with demand for at least the next 30 years. From squeezing oil out of unconventional sources such as oil shales, to using new technologies to re-exploit old oil fields that had since been left as dead, to undiscovered conventional oil sources, Dr. McCabe’s opinion is that there is no impending peak oil crisis - and the same thing goes for natural gas and coal.
So, hooray. Score one for fossil fuels. But is this really good news? In some sadistic and drastic way, part of me hopes that Dr. McCabe is wrong — because if he’s right, I’m afraid it will provide no incentive to the world to make the changes that are necessary to ensure the survival of humanity.
Other Posts From the Joint Meeting in Houston:
- Biofuels are Here To Stay: What To Do About Food Supply?
- Pro-Poor Biofuel Crops: Sweet Sorghum and Cassava
- Biofuels And Security: Shedding My Western-Centric Worldview (Opinion)
Opening Image Credit: W.M. Norton, publisher of the Book “Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil” by David Goodstein
Commenters Common Sense and Blue Eyed Indian touch on the real issue here. There is much more petroleum in the Earth’s crust than the so-called experts tell us. It cannot all be degraded biomass.
I believe that 99% of the Earth’s hydrocarbons originated in the same way as 99% of the Solar System’s hydrocarbons. They were form as methane and other low-order alkanes in the primaeval accretion disc. Then they were enclosed in pockets in the planets as they formed. Over time, due to the temperature and pressure under the surface of the Earth, they have polymerised into the longer-chain molecules we see in crude petroleum.
It’s a question of whether oil-fields are commercially viable, not whether they exist or not. A high price means more fields can be drilled, which stabilises the price again.
Human caused climate change is a myth. Fossil fuels are abundant, although the easily accessabe (cheap) stuff is getting scarce. The Algore scare movie is just that. Similar to The Beast from 20,000 fathoms caused by nuclear waste circa 1950s ’si-fi. Read “The myth of human caused climate change” by R.M. Carter. Real science-Not BS!!!
Accomplish something really good!!! Tax all IMPORT oil at $50.00 a barrel,and apply it to research for all energy options in the US. Investment will flow into the alternatives for the possibility of great profits. In the past, oil went up with phony shortages. Alternatives looked like good investments, money was invested and progress made. OPEC increased supply, lowered the oil prices. That stopped the development of alternatives because they no longer were economically competitive with the ( Once again cheap ) imported oil. Not even worth drilling in our own fields. Our idiots in Congress allow this cycle to continue because WE won’t pay $5.00 a gallon for gas- our own! So we continus to send money to our enemies abroad. BRILLIANT!!!
By the way, Nagasaki and hiroshima were said to uninhabitable according to the algore’s and scientists of the the period.
The shortage of fossil fuel and human caused climate chang Just so much boloney from the UN!! The intention is purely for social engineering purposes. College students, the vatican, other socialists will believe and promote anything detrimental to the USA.
Whether oil is running out or not is a secondary issue. We should shift to renewable and sustainable sources of energy for the reduced impact each of us will have on our environment. One example is electric cars which do not only this but also make economic sense because they cost a fraction to run.
I find it so hard to believe that there are still global warming deniers out there, I suppose they still think that phrenology is a legitimate science and eugenics is needed to prevent the criminalization of society. Mainstream science accepts global warming as real, and anthropogenic. Just look at the arctic ice caps, the Keeling curve, the shoreline in Tuvalu, it’s not even up for discussion in educated circles.
…THE IMPENDING OIL CRISIS… PEAK OIL…? EVERYTHING ISN’T SO BAD.
Undiscovered world hydrocarbon reserves are too far from depletion. For example, the world’s second largest discovery in the past 20 years occurred at Brazil’s Tupi field, in November, 2007. Estimated recoverable reserves could reach eight billion barrels. Some early was discovered Sugar Loaf field (25-40 billion barrels).
Swiss-based Manas Petroleum stated that a resource evaluation in north-western Albania had assigned 2.987 billion barrels of oil with 3.014 trillion cubic feet of associated gas.
Oil contents of the US Outer Continental Shelf estimates as about 19 billion barrels and so on.
There are many large undiscovered oil fields (perhaps 40-50%).
Problem is in low success rate in exploration wells.
According to industry figures the rate for the North Sea now are approximately 25%. In other words only one well is successful in four drilled. It significantly brakes industry growing.
However there is a Binary Seismo-Electromagnetic (BSE) technology, which uses new physical mechanism for creation the direct response from hydrocarbon deposits. It can significantly mitigate statistic data cited above because BSE success rate is more then 75% for wildcats with discovering commercial pays. Or to put it another way, failure rate is 25% only (one well in four drilled). So, new method is at least in three (3) times more effective then conventional methods. The BSE survey can find and outline at list 75% of all reserves in any region before any drilling is done or it can add 25-30% reserves in old provinces. http://www.binaryseismoem.weebly.com
[...] seems to have their own opinion. There are experts on both sides who alternately claim we have at least 30 years before we reach it and those who claim we’ve already reached [...]
why isn’t anyone concerned with possible side effects or consequences of draining oil from Mother Earth? It must serve a great purpose in nature and should not be removed, I would imagine…I haven’t been able to find any scientific facts on this issue…
I have seen and listened to many theories, reports and bull over the last 20 years, lived through two recessions and yet we are doing absolutely nothing to eleviate any of our coming fuel or world problems.
The wind farms are working when the wind is blowing and are extremely expensive ornaments or not so when the wind is not blowing.
Another pet hate if I am allowed any is, it is a total waste of time using one resorce to generate another when there is absolutely no need to, we can forget nuclear, it has between 10 to 20 years at best id we start down that path, did you know it would take 10,000 new such power stations to make and supply the amount of power we currently use.
Another one is the destruction of viable oxygen producing plants and trees for bio fuels, when will we sit up and listen, if and when we cut down the last forrest we are in deep trouble, we need to be planting more not cutting them down.
We have many viable rivers in this and other countries throughout the world which simply keep on flowing and have done so for thousands of years, if we put them all back to use, we could get rid of the big boys in power stakes, they would dissagree of course, small turbines are relatively cheap to build and service, and can run 24-7, a lot of smaller units would be much more reliable than just one huge power station who have monopoly over us all, if any of the small generators went off line for a short period, we wouldn’t notice anything was wrong, and the best part is, they would produce zero carbon once up and running.
We really need to take stock now in order of protecting what reserves we have left, we need modern lubricants to keep industry running, can you immagine how long industry would run for if we had to relly on the old fat based oils, I would guess about 24 hours.
At the end of the day its not oil that we need to concentrate upon, its a world family planning sceme, I will put it in laymans terms for you all,
A field is the world, if a 100 acre field can support a 100 sheep nicely thank you, what happens when the number is doubled, answer they will all die of starvation, remember this civilisation is only three meals away.
All the money in all of the banks of this world will not save it,
As long as we make people work for nothing and give others something for nothing, everything will keep on going round in circles while we miss the real points of what I am trying to get across.
The worlds recorces are not being shared out evenly enough to make it matter, they all belong to us all
not the few.
I could go on al night but it wouldn’t do any good
Nuf said
Davy
United kingdom.
I just couldn’t resist
Up the Amish, did you know this
A team of 35 men and boys build a house in just a day
without any modern tooling, and have you seen one of their houses, I mean really nice they are, what we would call a nice pad on the grand designs program and very co-efficient being made of zero carbon timber with remarkable thermal saving properties.
Did you know that in Poland there are still over 500 thousand horses used daily, most farms are of about 12 acres in size and they can still produce more milk than us here in the UK, how do they do this you might ask, the answer is hard work, they may not be super rich but they are an honest hard working happy people who are currently going through a westernised modernisation progam, I just hope the westernised style governments of this world do not destroy what uniqueness they have today.
If you would like more of the above information, it is alavailable from the earth magazine, a well worth read for up to date facts.
Cheers
Davy.
Dear Nick
After reading the post here it is clear that there is a the beleif that we haven’t got much of a chance unless we start working together, those who say things like it won’t mater because I woun’t be around when that/it happens is the very attitude that gets us into such positions.
I can remember my Grandfather telling me that civilisation is but three meals away and this is where my penneth worth begins.
According to the latest film on the oil front called A Crude Awakening, it says that a single barrel of oil and its energy, holds the same energy as 12 men’s labour in a single years contributions, hard to beleive then watch the film.
We are wasting all our futures by bringing vast amounts of food from one country to another in the name of profit, when those countries could grow or supply the same, grain to a grain producer is absolutely stupid in the extreme in my eyes and I would refrain from eating it, if we all opened our eyes and acted accordingly we would save this wreckless waste.
I would say we need to start rationing oil to those companies who are making this waste, so as to reduce their air, sea and lans miles, same goes for those who holiday excesively, these luxuries are the veru polocies that are damaging the future for everyone, its going to have to be a collation and sacrifice for us and our offspring, we are responsible today right now.
As an engineer I can tell you that all if not most of our heavy indisties would grind to a halt within 48 hours without that modern lubrication that fossile fuel brings, the vedge methos just would not be able to withstand the high temps that modern engineering demands.
But its food where we will all eventually suffer from not having, 70% of our food is forced along using ammonia fro oil the rest is from the sun, we will always have the sun but not the former.
The sun shines on us every day somewhere on the planet, one days sunshine produces enough power to last us 25 years of power, I believe it is here togehter with our rivers and weather IE wind in that order that will help us to make ends meet, but at a much lower population.
As we are today our population would not be able to survive more than a few weeks without fossile fuels, b the time the oil does run out the world population will be many times larger and millions upon millions of us and our children are simply going to die, no oil, no food, no life.