How Much Oil is Actually Left On This Planet? Should We Care?
Editor’s Note: I’m in Houston, TX, this week, celebrating the International Year of the Planet by posting on topics covered at the first ever joint meeting between the American societies of Soil Science, Geology, Crop Science and Agronomy. With a significant focus on biofuels, this conference should be rife with interesting materials.
According to Dr. Peter McCabe, a world-renowned scientist currently working at CSIRO in Australia, any realistic analysis of future energy sources can only conclude that, barring some complete and miraculous harmony between all the world’s economic superpowers, fossil fuels will dominate our energy mix for at least the next few decades — and we should just accept it.
To get a perspective on where Dr. McCabe is coming from, it struck me that he is a man who thinks in terms of quadrillions of BTUs and exajoules of energy. His views come from an analysis of global markets and global energy use. To him it probably seems that a grassroots coordinated global effort is beyond the reach of humanity.
Being a bit of a realistic skeptic myself, it seemed like it would be worth my while to temporarily suspend my deep held belief that not only is it possible for the U.S. and most of the rest of the world to kick its oil habit within a decade, but also a simple requirement for survival, and take Dr. McCabe at face value.
You see, to me all issues are local and don’t work on a global scale. Indeed, local efforts often end up with global results. But the top-down mentality, the self-same mentality that often results in humans thinking that a particular task is beyond reach, is what precludes a person who deals in exajoules from thinking that global change is possible in a short period of time.
With that said, Dr. McCabe does have some significant food for thought. Since 1980, world energy use has gone from 250 quadrillion BTUs to about 500 quadrillion BTUs presently (see chart at right, click for larger copy). The vast majority of that growth has been in Asia, with smaller amounts coming from North America and the Middle East. Europe’s energy demand has remained rather static and Eurasia has actually seen a decline in use since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Of the 500 quadrillion BTUs the world currently uses, roughly 40% comes from oil, 24% from natural gas, 22% from coal, 8% from nuclear, and 6% from renewables (see chart below, click for larger copy). In a way, I can see Dr. McCabe’s point: with 86% of 500 quadrillion BTUs coming from fossil fuels, it’s hard to envision a way to replace that much energy with renewable sources in a short period of time. 430 quadrillion BTUs is, to me, an unimaginably large amount.
So, if Dr. McCabe is right, will the world have enough fossil fuels to keep up with demand? If we can’t completely switch to renewable energy sources for at least another 30 years (and assuming climate change doesn’t kill us off first) will the problem of peak oil rear it’s ugly head and kill us off anyways?
According to McCabe, in a nutshell the peak oil concept is fundamentally flawed because it doesn’t account for external factors.
The way he sees it, the world has plenty of remaining and untapped fossil fuel resources to keep up with demand for at least the next 30 years. From squeezing oil out of unconventional sources such as oil shales, to using new technologies to re-exploit old oil fields that had since been left as dead, to undiscovered conventional oil sources, Dr. McCabe’s opinion is that there is no impending peak oil crisis - and the same thing goes for natural gas and coal.
So, hooray. Score one for fossil fuels. But is this really good news? In some sadistic and drastic way, part of me hopes that Dr. McCabe is wrong — because if he’s right, I’m afraid it will provide no incentive to the world to make the changes that are necessary to ensure the survival of humanity.
Other Posts From the Joint Meeting in Houston:
- Biofuels are Here To Stay: What To Do About Food Supply?
- Pro-Poor Biofuel Crops: Sweet Sorghum and Cassava
- Biofuels And Security: Shedding My Western-Centric Worldview (Opinion)
Opening Image Credit: W.M. Norton, publisher of the Book “Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil” by David Goodstein
I consider McCabe to be exactly right about the timescale of at least 30 years to convert from mostly fossil fuels to at least half renewables. More likely it will take 50 years to get to half renewables, unless a horrific human dieoff.org occurs.
It’s true that most university graduates simultaneously believe in peak oil and anthropogenic climate catastrophe. But most experts in climate and oil reserves believe in neither. McCabe is a lot smarter on the topic than Simmons or Kuntsler or the other hucksters.
If you really believe that the world or even just the US can switch to renewable energy in less than a decade, you’re a nutcase.
We currently have no sensible replacement fuels for heavy trucks, tankers, aircraft, bulldozers. Abandoning fossil fuels entirely is just talk until we figure out what we replace them with. But I believe it is good talk.
If you anticipate having to migrate away from fossil fuels, perhaps in several decades, it is both appropriate and sensible to start working on replacement technology now.
Who knows, the new stuff might be much more economic and green than the old, two good reasons to change.
Also, it may not be so obvious in the US, which has a huge infrastructure that supports using fossil fuels, but several other countries do not have to go that way. They can choose which path to follow.
You don’t want to have to be forced into doing anything. You do want to anticipate and prepare well in advance.
Pierre,
Color me a nutcase then.
Ensure the survival of humanity. Replace fossil fuels in 10 years. Just childish baloney. Get a grip. There will be plenty of energy of all types “for ever”. All the various energy forms of today and tomorrow will be employed as needed so as to cover the base so to speak. Energy and global air quality will work themselves out over the next 50 years organically. These will not be what kills off the human race they are but quality of life issues.
Did McCabe get his stats from OPEC and have they been verified as factual amounts for the remaining reserves? Or are they just the same inflated figures used by OPEC to cheat there quotas? We will know for certain how much oil remains if there was an independant audit of the world’s oil reserves rather than just relying on bullshit figures put out by corrupt OPEC governements.
Peak oil seems to be here already, with production at 85mbd for the past few years. McCabe also seems to have forgotten to mention the huge amounts of water, energy and costs involved in both tar sands and shale extraction. Hoping for some “pulp sci-fi” techno-fix to get us out of the oil peak mess is delusional thinking at its worst.
Also for the morons who think that we have 30 or 40 years worth of oil left. I suggest reading the whole statement. Its “30 years AT CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS”, that is 30 years if production sits at 85mbd. Less if production increases and longer if it falls.
Capt Korn,
Is it childish to bet on a future that protects the survival of humanity as we know it regardless of whether or not your opinions are right, or is it childish to carry on just like we are now when, if your opinions are wrong, we will end up in a world of hurt that threatens even the very existence of civilization?
The idea that we can not have at lease the United States on renewable fuel by 2109 is only true if we are dumb enough to believe it. Biodiesel from algae could replace all of our petrofuel within that time, if we start now to do so. What is needed is the will and the ability to prevent the so called environmentalists and the “save the salmonella” groups from stopping the progress. Methane, the most common component of natural gas is easily manufactured and there are already conversion kits on the market for converting gasoline and diesel powered vehicles to use compressed natural gas. The USAF already has certified a large part of its fleet to fly using a 50% mixture of JP8 and 50% synthetic paraffinic kerosene. This fuel is also used for all ground support equipment already. They are working on full synthetic fuel. There are 2 different groups of airlines and aircraft manufacturers working on a full synthetic fuel for airline use.
WE can be sure that the capability to do the change is well under development. The time could be shorter than anyone expects. I see the biggest problem as convincing people who have not been near a new diesel pickup to using diesel engines in their cars. (For what is possible there run an internet search for “Jaguar XF2.7D test reports”. ) These capabilities can easily tide us over until we no longer need any petrofuel.
We should also consider that the algae which would be used for biodiesel also has a voracious appetite for CO2, and gives off as a by product large quantities of O2. The remaining algae can be used as fodder, fertilizer, or feed stock for celulastic methanol.
Batteries will surely continue to get better and better. Electric cars are coming and these biofuels will surely provide a great bridge as well as continued use where appropriate for a long time after.
Error correction!! That date of 2109 is supposed to be “2019″. And the ninth word is supposed to be “least”
Sorry about that, spell checkers just don’t proof read.
As usual a “scientist” concludes something like that by just looking at a part of the data, i.e. total size of reserves. He has completely ignored extraction rates, net energy produced and cost of production. The conclusion is therefore utter nonsense.