The Growing Need for Fuel Substitution, Efficiency, and Conservation
Stacy Feldman of solveclimate.com wrote a prescient post today about the coming clash between growing car demand and peak oil. Basically, there will be so many new cars added to the road in the next ten years (think China, India) that global petroleum usage will increase overall, even with drastic fuel efficiency increases. Add to that the eventual economic depletion of oil, and we have a a bit of a situation on our hands:
(1) The number of cars on the road globally will hit 1 billion by 2011.
(2) The world’s oil will peak by 2015, according to the CEO of Shell.
Better fuel efficiency + more cars = more oil burned.
Mull this over and America’s new CAFE standards of 35 mpg seem rather impotent. What’s needed is a multi-pronged approached to energy independence, based on three primary concepts:
- Conservation: Improving public transportation and increasing average fuel efficiency above 35 mpg.
- Substitution: Increasing biofuel use to at least 35% by 2020 (see previous announcements 1 and 2).
- Technology: Implementing advanced technologies like plug-in hybrids and electric cars.
Each of these has the potential to make a substantial dent in America’s petroleum usage, but none of them can do it alone, and none of them should be overemphasized.
What will it take to move all three of these forward? Mandates? Incentives? Dictatorship? I’d love to hear your thoughts…
For a few ways you can reduce your dependence on petroleum, see the Biodiesel Guide:
7 Steps to Buying a Diesel and
6 Ways To Find And Use Biodiesel Anywhere
Learn How To Make Biodiesel On YouTube
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Public transportation is a massive issue, one that, coming from the UK, I don’t see much of in the US - perhaps it varies massively city by city. The investment required in public transportation is probably not much greater than the combined investment car companies will need to put into alternative fuels (with the hope of continuing to sell more cars). Perhaps I’m naive, it just seems to me that traveling in your own vehicle is so much more preferable to public transport (excluding traffic and cost issues) and to get people who are used to the former to use the latter is going to be very difficult indeed.
Sorry - comment posted before I was finished. Essentially I mean that creating a car that is zero-emission will, to a high proportion of consumers, be much more appealing than public transport will ever be.
Good points Joel.
The amount of money invested in the highway/freeway system in the United States is tremendous. If even a fraction of that had gone into the development of public transportation I think things would be quite different.
But yes, it does vary considerably by city and state. Portland, Oregon, for example, has excellent public transportation including buses, a light-rail system, and Flex Car system (not ethanol cars, but ones parked around the city you can rent for $7 / hour). Other cities I’ve lived in have virtually NO public transpo, unless you can afford to wait an hour or more if you miss the bus.
The issue of personal, independent transportation deserves some thought, and ultimately I think you’re right - people want their own car. But once you’ve ridden the light rail at 55 mph, watching stop-and-go traffic on the freeway, that sensibility can change. I believe that there’s a lot of room for improvement, in both public transpo and individual zero-emissions vehicles.
I was listening to NPR this morning and there’s a proposal to change the max speed limit in Oregon back to 55mph, which will reduce emissions, if my memory serves me correctly, by 15%. The prompt of this proposal is exactly what you write about - oil depletion. This proposal will most likely be rejected because of the safety issues that result from people who refuse to drive slower colliding with those following the new law. What do you think about this proposal? It seems kind of futile to me.
–”Other cities I’ve lived in have virtually NO public transpo, unless you can afford to wait an hour or more if you miss the bus.”–
Like living outside of Corvallis, frex.
The bus system in town isn’t too bad, but I live just a couple miles away because rent is cheaper, and there’s almost no public transport options.
When I was in Wales, I lived in a town half the size that I do now, and you could go ANYWHERE on a bus, including out into the country. I miss that, especially in a two-person, one-vehicle household.
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